Civilizational Dynamics Lab

From civilizational dynamics to sovereign risk.

CDL is an independent research initiative exploring how long-run energy, burden, meaning and lock-in dynamics shape sovereign risk, structural imbalance and macro fragility.

Sovereign Risk Curve (SRC) Energy · Burden · Meaning · Lock-in France SRC 1995–2024

What CDL works on

Civilizational dynamics in five coordinates

We treat a country as a long-run state–society system and track five slow variables:

E – Energy & productive capacity
D – Structural burden (debt, ageing, obligations)
M – Meaning field cohesion (trust, polarisation)
Ac – Adaptive capacity (governance, innovation)
Lc – Lock-in (rigidity of institutions & spending)

These are combined into a capacity curve C(t), a burden curve B(t) and a structural imbalance index Imbalance(t) = B(t) − C(t).

Application line

The SRC – Sovereign Risk under Civilizational Dynamics

SRC is a transparent, open-data framework that links civilizational structure to sovereign risk signals such as debt dynamics and bond spreads.

The first full implementation is a structural assessment of France (1995–2024), built only from public data (World Bank, IMF, OECD, WGI, V-Dem, WVS and others).

Research

France SRC – structural assessment 1995–2024

This working paper applies the SRC framework to France as the first full case study.

Builds five indices (E, D, M, Ac, Lc) from public macro, institutional and social indicators.
Aggregates them into C(t), B(t) and Imbalance(t), then compares these with the 10-year OAT–Bund spread.
Uses SRC as a scenario engine for 2025–2030 under different domestic and external configurations.

Status: submitted to SSRN and currently under editorial review. A public working-paper version and chart pack will be released here once the SSRN record is live.

Early-access draft is available on request for researchers, institutions and investors.

从文明动力学出发，重新理解主权风险。

CDL 是一个独立研究项目，关注能量、结构负担、意义场与锁死结构等慢变量，如何在长期尺度上塑造主权风险、结构性失衡与宏观脆弱性。

SRC 主权风险曲线能量 · 负担 · 意义 · 锁死法国 SRC 1995–2024

CDL 在做什么

用五个坐标刻画文明动力学

我们把国家视作一个长期的“国家–社会系统”，用五个慢变量来刻画其结构演化：

E – 能量与生产能力
D – 结构负担（债务、老龄化、刚性支出等）
M – 意义场凝聚度（信任、撕裂、反体制情绪）
Ac – 适应能力（治理质量、创新能力）
Lc – 锁死程度（制度和财政的刚性程度）

这些变量被组合为能力曲线 C(t)、负担曲线 B(t)，以及结构失衡指数 Imbalance(t) = B(t) − C(t)。

应用方向

SRC：基于文明动力学的主权风险框架

SRC 是一个基于公开数据的透明框架，用来连接文明结构与主权风险信号，比如债务动态与国债利差。

首个完整案例是对法国（1995–2024）的结构性评估，完全基于公开数据库（世界银行、IMF、OECD、WGI、V-Dem、WVS 等）。

研究

法国 SRC：1995–2024 结构性评估

这篇工作论文将 SRC 框架应用于法国，是首个完整案例。

使用公开的宏观、制度与社会指标，构建 E、D、M、Ac、Lc 五个指数。
进一步组合为 C(t)、B(t) 和 Imbalance(t)，并与 10 年期 OAT–Bund 利差进行对比。
在不同内外部情景下，将 SRC 用作 2025–2030 的情景引擎。

当前状态：已提交 SSRN，正在编辑审核中。 SSRN 记录上线后，本页将发布公开版工作论文与图表包。

针对研究机构、政策部门与投资者，可按需求提供草稿与更多技术细节。